Commentary: China’s economy will probably get worse before it gets better

HONG KONG: China was surely hoping to start the year off strong, looking to the massive Chinese New Year holiday for signs of economic recovery, especially ahead of its annual Two Sessions meeting starting on Mar 5 where the government will announce its growth target for 2024. With annual exports falling for the first time in seven years and investment dragged by the property turmoil in 2023, consumption has become the key in stabilising China’s economic growth. Official data showed a promising surge over the eight-day holiday, when hundreds of millions of Chinese returned to their hometowns or indulged in domestic tourism. Domestic trips and tourism spending exceeded 2019 pre-pandemic levels by 19 per cent and 7.7 per cent respectively.…